How 90Predict works
Four steps take a fixture from raw results to a pick you can check. Here they are, without the jargon.
Step 1 – rate every team
Each night we go through a year of results and give every club two numbers: an attack rating (how many goals it scores compared with an average side in its league) and a defence rating (how many it lets in). Recent matches count for more – a game from three months ago counts half as much as one from last weekend – and teams with only a few games are pulled towards the league average until they have proved otherwise. Cup and continental results link the leagues together, so a cup tie between a top-flight side and a lower-league side is rated on one scale.
Step 2 – turn ratings into expected goals
For any fixture, home attack × away defence × the league's home scoring rate gives the home side's expected goals; the same in reverse gives the away side's. Those figures make up half of our goal estimate. The rest comes from a stats feed (20%) and the bookmakers' goal lines (30%), which react fastest to injuries and line-ups.
Step 3 – one score grid for every market
Expected goals feed a grid of every scoreline from 0–0 to 7–7. Real football produces a few more 0–0 and 1–1 draws than a simple goals model predicts, so we nudge those up. Every market – match result, double chance, over/under, both teams to score, correct score, half-time and HT/FT – is read off that one grid, so the numbers never contradict each other. For the result we lean on our own figures (66%) and use the market price for the rest (34%).
Step 4 – choose the pick
The pick is the option with the best mix of chance and price. A 92% chance at 1.04 is not worth backing, so we look for strong chances that still pay something, give a little extra weight to prices above our fair odds, and – being 90Predict – lean towards goals markets when two options are close.
Ratings out of 10
- 8–10: our chance is about 75% or higher.
- 6–7: roughly 62–74%.
- 4–5: around 52–61%.
- 1–3: a slight lean, close to 50/50.
Fair odds and value
Fair odds = 100 ÷ our percentage. Rate something at 40% and the fair price is 2.50; if a bookmaker offers 2.90, the price is better than it should be – that is value. The value page only lists prices at least 6% above fair, between odds of 1.60 and 4.50.
Markets in one line each
- 1X2: home win (1), draw (X) or away win (2).
- Double chance: two results covered – 1X or X2.
- GG / NG: both teams score, or at least one doesn't.
- Over / under: total goals above or below a line – O2.5 needs three or more.
- Correct score: the exact result – long odds, low chance.
- HT/FT: the result at the break and at the end, e.g. X/1.
Grading
Picks are locked at kick-off and graded on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, the way bookmakers settle. Extra time and penalties are ignored; postponed or abandoned games are void. Nothing is removed afterwards – see the results and the accuracy breakdown.
Bet within your limits
Even good numbers lose regularly; a winning month can contain several losing weeks. Decide your budget first, never try to win back losses, and only stake what you can afford. 18+ only – our responsible gambling page lists free help.