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Northampton v Gillingham: numbers & prediction

EFL Trophy · England · Sixfields Stadium

Northampton

LLDWL
1–2
FT

Gillingham

LWLDL
Northampton 47%Draw 19%Gillingham 34% Expected goals 1.88 – 1.59
81%
90Predict pick

Over 1.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.25Odds
O2.5

Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultNorthampton to win ✗47% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.42

Northampton v Gillingham: preview, numbers and pick

The fixture

Tuesday 10 November, 20:00 WAT: Northampton welcome Gillingham in the EFL Trophy at Sixfields Stadium. In the table, Northampton have 9 points from 3 games (1st) and Gillingham have 3 (3rd).

Recent form

Northampton, last 5 games: LLDWL Their latest: 0–4 away – they lost to York. Home record in that spell: 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Only 0.8 goals per game – the attack has stalled.

Gillingham, last 5 games: LWLDL Their latest: 0–1 at home – they lost to Barrow. Goals: 1.5 for and 2.2 against per game.

Head to head

When they last met (29 Aug 2026) it ended Gillingham 1–1 Northampton.

The numbers on goals

90Predict' expected goals: Northampton 1.9 – 1.6 Gillingham, about 3.5 in total. Plenty of goal threat here – over 2.5 rates 60%, GG 62%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 on our numbers: Northampton 47% · draw 19% · Gillingham 34%.
  • GG/NG: yes (62%) at 1.73.
  • Value spot: Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 – 60% for us, 56% by the bookmaker.

What we picked

Before kick-off we picked Over 1.5 goals – a 81% chance at odds of 1.25. Most likely score in our grid: Northampton 1–1 Gillingham. Settled on the 90-minute score. Our numbers are estimates, not certainties – 18+ only, please bet responsibly.

Result chances

Northampton47%fair 2.14 · @2.05
Draw19%fair 5.30 · @3.70
Gillingham34%fair 2.90 · @2.88
3.47Expected goals
1.88Northampton xG
1.59Gillingham xG
62%Both score
60%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–19%
2–19%
1–27%
2–27%
1–06%
2–06%

From our goals model: Northampton 1.9 – 1.6 Gillingham expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultNorthampton to win ✗47%2.142.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81%1.231.22
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓62%1.601.73 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81%1.241.25
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓60%1.671.80 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓62%1.621.36
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗36%2.76–
Half-time / full-timeHT Northampton / FT Northampton ✗28%3.62–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%11.42–

Recent results

Northampton – last 6

LLDWLW
7 Nov@ York0–4L
3 Novvs Oldham0–1L
31 Oct@ Accrington ST1–1D
24 Octvs Colchester2–0W
20 Octvs Tranmere0–1L
17 Oct@ Grimsby2–0W
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Gillingham – last 6

LWLDLW
7 Novvs Barrow0–1L
31 Oct@ Shrewsbury2–1W
24 Octvs Grimsby1–4L
20 Octvs Port Vale1–1D
17 Oct@ Accrington ST1–3L
13 Octvs Brighton U214–3W
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

29 Aug 2026Gillingham v Northampton1–1
Northampton vs Gillingham head-to-head page →

EFL Trophy table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Northampton3300+59
2Walsall3201+15
3Shrewsbury3102-13
4Chelsea U213003-51

More EFL Trophy predictions

League hub
FT Crewe1 Wigan2 Tip: Over 1.5 goals 12.2041%X3.2521%22.8838% O1.583%@1.20✓
FT Mansfield Town3 Chesterfield5 Tip: Over 2.5 goals 12.0542%X4.0017%22.6241% O2.569%@1.44✓
FT Stockport County0 Tranmere0 Pens 4–3 Tip: Over 2.5 goals 11.3068%X5.2520%26.2511% O2.570%@1.36✗
FT Burton Albion0 Notts County3 Tip: Both teams to score 12.4532%X3.9018%22.2550% GG66%@1.50✗
FT Grimsby0 Nottingham Forest U213 Tip: Grimsby to win 11.7367%X3.9014%23.6019% 167%@1.73✗
FT Huddersfield4 Liverpool U210 Tip: Over 2.5 goals 11.2865%X5.0016%27.0020% O2.577%@1.22✓
FT Oxford United4 Cheltenham0 Tip: Over 2.5 goals 11.2268%X6.0021%28.5011% O2.571%@1.36✓
FT Leicester2 Walsall1 Tip: Over 2.5 goals 11.2275%X6.2517%27.508% O2.580%@1.22✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Northampton vs Gillingham?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Northampton vs Gillingham?

On our numbers Northampton have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Gillingham 34%.

How many goals will there be in Northampton vs Gillingham?

We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Northampton vs Gillingham?

Our predicted score is Northampton 1–1 Gillingham, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.

When is Northampton vs Gillingham?

Northampton vs Gillingham (EFL Trophy) kicks off on Tuesday 10 November 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Sixfields Stadium.

Numbers from 90Predict' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.