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Middlesbrough U21 v Derby County U21 prediction

Middlesbrough U21WLLLW
1:1
FT xG2.56 – 1.53
Derby County U21DLLWD
Middlesbrough U2161%@1.78Draw15%@4.05Derby County U2123%@3.20
By · Lead analystUpdated 11 Nov 2026, 22:27 WAT · Picks graded in public on the results page
75%chance
90Predict pick · Lost ✗

Over 2.5 goals

StrongFair 1.33Odds 1.25
Rating8/10
Value

Middlesbrough U21 to win @ 1.78our chance 61% vs 56% in the price · edge +9%

Picks by market

ResultMiddlesbrough U21 to win ✗61% · @1.78
Double chanceEither team to win ✗85% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓70% · @1.28
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%

Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21 – match briefing & prediction

Match briefing

Kick-off 20:00 WAT on Monday 9 November: Middlesbrough U21 take on Derby County U21 in the Premier League 2 Division One, with Heritage Park hosting. The standings: Middlesbrough U21 sit 29th on 3 points after 7 matches (in the drop zone), Derby County U21 18th on 8 (in the lower half).

Form guide

Middlesbrough U21 over their last 5: WLLLW Most recently they got past Valencia U21 3–2 at home. On home soil in that run: 2 wins, 1 defeat in 4. Scoring 1.3, conceding 2.3 per match.

Derby County U21 over their last 5: DLLWD Most recently they shared the points with Wealdstone 2–2 on the road. Away from home in that run: 1 win, 2 defeats in 5. 2.2 goals per outing tells you the attack is clicking.

Past meetings

Last time out between these two (20 Mar 2026): Derby County U21 1–0 Middlesbrough U21.

Goal forecast

Our model projects Middlesbrough U21 2.6 – 1.5 Derby County U21 in expected goals, roughly 4.1 combined. That points to an open contest: over 2.5 comes out at 75% and both teams scoring at 70%. Recent games for both sides have tended to go over 2.5 too.

Betting angles

  • Match result (1X2): Middlesbrough U21 61%, draw 15%, Derby County U21 23%.
  • Both teams to score: yes – 70% at 1.28.
  • Price worth noting: Middlesbrough U21 to win at 1.78 – we make it 61%, the odds imply 56%.

What we called

Ade Ola's pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (75% chance, priced 1.25). Correct-score lean: Middlesbrough U21 2–1 Derby County U21. Bets settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. These are probabilities, not promises – 18+, stake only what you can afford.

Result chances

Middlesbrough U2161%fair 1.63 · @1.78
Draw15%fair 6.49 · @4.05
Derby County U2123%fair 4.29 · @3.20
4.09Expected goals
2.56Middlesbrough U21 xG
1.53Derby County U21 xG
70%Both score
75%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–18%
3–17%
1–17%
2–26%
2–05%
3–25%

From our goals model: Middlesbrough U21 2.6 – 1.5 Derby County U21 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMiddlesbrough U21 to win ✗61%1.631.78 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✗85%1.181.14
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓70%1.431.28
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓90%1.111.03
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗75%1.331.25
Over/under 3.5 goalsOver 3.5 goals ✗56%1.801.73
Half-time resultMiddlesbrough U21 ahead at half-time ✗46%2.16–
Half-time / full-timeHT Middlesbrough U21 / FT Middlesbrough U21 ✗39%2.55–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%11.91–

Recent results

Middlesbrough U21 – last 6

WLLLWD
3 Novvs Valencia U213–2W
25 Octvs Tottenham Hotspur U211–2L
20 Oct@ Boreham Wood1–7L
16 Oct@ Everton U211–2L
30 Sepvs Juventus U211–0W
23 Sepvs Genk U211–1D
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Derby County U21 – last 6

DLLWDL
3 Nov@ Wealdstone2–2D
2 Nov@ Hull City U210–1L
26 Octvs Norwich City U213–4L
19 Oct@ Birmingham City U214–0W
13 Oct@ Scunthorpe2–2D
10 Oct@ Brentford U212–4L
2.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Head to head

20 Mar 2026Derby County U21 v Middlesbrough U211–0
Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21 head-to-head page →

Premier League 2 Division One table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Southampton U216510+1116
2Chelsea U217511+816
3Tottenham Hotspur U217511+716
4Fulham U217412+513
5Norwich City U217412+113
6Nottingham Forest U217412013
7Liverpool U216321+511
8Reading U217322+111
9Manchester United U215311+810
10Leeds United U216312+310
11Sunderland U217313+210
12AFC Bournemouth U217313-310
13Everton U216231+29
14Brentford U21730409
15West Ham United U21723209
16Blackburn Rovers U21530209
17Crystal Palace U216222+18
18Derby County U21722308
19Brighton U21622208
20Aston Villa U216222-38
21Arsenal U217142-37
22Manchester City U214202+26
23Ipswich Town U214202+16
24Wolves U215203-76
25Leicester City U216123-55
26Stoke City U217115-34
27Burnley U217115-44
28Newcastle United U215113-74
29Middlesbrough U217034-53
30Birmingham City U216033-113
31West Bromwich Albion U215014-61

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21?

90Predict goes with Over 2.5 goals – a 75% chance, priced at 1.25.

Who will win Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21?

Middlesbrough U21 win 61% of the time on our model, the draw 15%, Derby County U21 23%.

How many goals will there be in Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21?

Around 4.1 goals on our projection – 75% for over 2.5 and 70% for both teams to score.

What is the predicted score for Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21?

Our correct-score lean is Middlesbrough U21 2–1 Derby County U21 – the likeliest scoreline that agrees with our tip. Total goals projected: 4.1.

When is Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21?

Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21 (Premier League 2 Division One) kicks off on Monday 9 November 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Heritage Park.

Numbers from 90Predict's team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.