Gavorrano vs Lucchese – match briefing & prediction
Match briefing
Kick-off 14:30 WAT on Sunday 15 November: Gavorrano take on Lucchese in the Serie D Girone E. Going in, Gavorrano are 4th with 21 points and Lucchese 6th with 18 – one inside the top four, the other in the upper half. A gap of just 3 points, so the result shifts the table for both.
Form guide
Gavorrano over their last 5: DWDDD Most recently they shared the points with Mezzolara 1–1 on the road. On home soil in that run: 1 win, 0 defeats in 3. Scoring 1.3, conceding 1.2 per match.
Lucchese over their last 5: WDLDL Most recently they got past San Donato Tavarnelle 1–0 at home. Scoring 1.2, conceding 1.5 per match.
Goal forecast
Our model projects Gavorrano 1.5 – 1.4 Lucchese in expected goals, roughly 2.9 combined. A middling goal outlook: 54% for over 2.5, 62% for both teams scoring. Recent games for both sides have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
- Match result (1X2): Gavorrano 42%, draw 21%, Lucchese 37%.
- Both teams to score: yes – 62% at 1.70.
- Price worth noting: Gavorrano to win at 2.70 – we make it 42%, the odds imply 37%.
Verdict
Ade Ola's verdict: Both teams to score (62% chance, priced 1.70 – longer than our fair 1.61, which makes it a value play). Correct-score lean: Gavorrano 1–1 Lucchese. Bets settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. These are probabilities, not promises – 18+, stake only what you can afford.

















