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Nairobi United v Mara Sugar prediction

Nairobi UnitedDLDDD
Sat 14 Nov 2026 xG2.13 – 1.87
Mara SugarWDWDL
Nairobi United43%@2.27Draw23%@2.85Mara Sugar33%@3.15
75%chance
90Predict pick

Over 1.5 goals

StrongFair 1.33Odds 1.52
Rating8/10
Value

Both teams to score @ 2.27our chance 63% vs 44% in the price · edge +43%

Picks by market

ResultNairobi United to win43% · @2.27
Double chanceEither team to win77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score63% · @2.27
GoalsOver 2.5 goals76%
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18%

Nairobi United v Mara Sugar: preview, numbers and pick

The fixture

Nairobi United and Mara Sugar meet in the FKF Premier League on Saturday 14 November – kick-off 12:00 WAT.

Recent form

Nairobi United, last 5 games: DLDDD Their latest: 1–1 away – they drew with GOR Mahia. Home record in that spell: 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals: 1.2 for and 1.3 against per game.

Mara Sugar, last 5 games: WDWDL Their latest: 2–1 at home – they beat Migori Youth. Away record in that spell: 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals: 1.2 for and 1.2 against per game.

Mara Sugar come in with the stronger run: 1.5 points per game, compared with 0.8.

Head to head

When they last met (1 Apr 2026) it ended Nairobi United 1–1 Mara Sugar.

The numbers on goals

90Predict's expected goals: Nairobi United 2.1 – 1.9 Mara Sugar, about 4.0 in total. Plenty of goal threat here – over 2.5 rates 76%, GG 63%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 on our numbers: Nairobi United 43% · draw 23% · Mara Sugar 33%.
  • GG/NG: yes (63%) at 2.27.
  • Value spot: Both teams to score at 2.27 – 63% for us, 44% by the bookmaker.

Our pick

90Predict pick: Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.52, above our fair price of 1.33, so there is value in it. Most likely score in our grid: Nairobi United 2–1 Mara Sugar. Settled on the 90-minute score. Our numbers are estimates, not certainties – 18+ only, please bet responsibly.

Result chances

Nairobi United43%fair 2.31 · @2.27
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @2.85
Mara Sugar33%fair 2.99 · @3.15
4.00Expected goals
2.13Nairobi United xG
1.87Mara Sugar xG
63%Both score
76%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–18%
1–17%
2–27%
1–27%
3–15%
3–25%

From our goals model: Nairobi United 2.1 – 1.9 Mara Sugar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultNairobi United to win43%2.312.27
Double chanceEither team to win77%1.301.35
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score63%1.592.27 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals75%1.331.52 ▲
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals76%1.31–
Over/under 3.5 goalsOver 3.5 goals57%1.77–
Half-time resultNairobi United ahead at half-time36%2.75–
Half-time / full-timeHT Nairobi United / FT Nairobi United28%3.61–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18%12.89–

Recent results

Nairobi United – last 6

DLDDDD
8 Nov@ GOR Mahia1–1D
28 Oct@ Murang'a SEAL2–3L
25 Octvs APS Bomet1–1D
18 Oct@ Shabana0–0D
11 Octvs KCB2–2D
2 Octvs Bandari1–1D
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Mara Sugar – last 6

WDWDLD
7 Novvs Migori Youth2–1W
28 Octvs AFC Leopards0–0D
19 Octvs Mombasa Elite2–1W
11 Oct@ 3K2–2D
2 Oct@ Tusker1–3L
11 Sep@ Ulinzi Stars0–0D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

1 Apr 2026Nairobi United v Mara Sugar1–1
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar head-to-head page →

More FKF Premier League predictions

League hub
Ulinzi Stars Migori Youth Tip: Both teams to score 12.5533%X2.8223%22.7543% GG51%@2.26
AFC Leopards Mombasa Elite Tip: Under 2.5 goals 11.4471%X3.6021%27.208% U2.566%@1.62

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.52.

Who will win Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?

On our numbers Nairobi United have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Mara Sugar 33%.

How many goals will there be in Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?

We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?

Our predicted score is Nairobi United 2–1 Mara Sugar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.

When is Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?

Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from 90Predict's team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.