2 Join free
Primera División Apertura Kick-off

Deportivo Maldonado v Cerro prediction

Deportivo MaldonadoDWWLW
Sat 14 Nov 2026 xG1.63 – 0.74
CerroLLDWL
Deportivo Maldonado59%@1.65Draw23%@3.50Cerro17%@4.50
By · Lead analystUpdated 11 Nov 2026, 23:35 WAT · Picks graded in public on the results page
78%chance
90Predict pick

Under 3.5 goals

StrongFair 1.29Odds 1.22
Rating9/10
Value

Both teams to score @ 2.20our chance 53% vs 45% in the price · edge +16%

Picks by market

ResultDeportivo Maldonado to win59% · @1.65
Double chanceDeportivo Maldonado or draw83% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19%

Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro – match briefing & prediction

Match briefing

Kick-off 20:30 WAT on Saturday 14 November: Deportivo Maldonado take on Cerro in the Primera División Apertura. The standings: Deportivo Maldonado sit 4th on 22 points after 13 matches (inside the top four), Cerro 9th on 18 (in the lower half).

Form guide

Deportivo Maldonado over their last 5: DWWLW Most recently they shared the points with Albion FC 0–0 on the road. On home soil in that run: 2 wins, 0 defeats in 3. Averaging 2.2 goals a match – the front line is in form.

Cerro over their last 5: LLDWL Most recently they were beaten by Central Espanol 1–2 at home. Away from home in that run: 1 win, 1 defeat in 3. Scoring 1.0, conceding 1.7 per match.

On points per game, Deportivo Maldonado arrive in better shape – 1.8 against 0.8.

Past meetings

Last time out between these two (24 Sep 2026): Cerro 1–2 Deportivo Maldonado.

Goal forecast

Our model projects Deportivo Maldonado 1.6 – 0.7 Cerro in expected goals, roughly 2.4 combined. A middling goal outlook: 42% for over 2.5, 53% for both teams scoring.

Betting angles

  • Match result (1X2): Deportivo Maldonado 59%, draw 23%, Cerro 17%.
  • Safer cover: Deportivo Maldonado or draw – 83% at 1.17.
  • Both teams to score: yes – 53% at 2.20.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score at 2.20 – we make it 53%, the odds imply 45%.

Verdict

Ade Ola's verdict: Under 3.5 goals (78% chance, priced 1.22). Correct-score lean: Deportivo Maldonado 1–0 Cerro. Bets settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. These are probabilities, not promises – 18+, stake only what you can afford.

Result chances

Deportivo Maldonado59%fair 1.68 · @1.65
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.50
Cerro17%fair 5.77 · @4.50
2.37Expected goals
1.63Deportivo Maldonado xG
0.74Cerro xG
53%Both score
42%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–015%
2–012%
1–111%
0–09%
2–19%
0–17%

From our goals model: Deportivo Maldonado 1.6 – 0.7 Cerro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultDeportivo Maldonado to win59%1.681.65
Double chanceDeportivo Maldonado or draw83%1.211.17
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score53%1.892.20 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals67%1.481.40
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals58%1.731.62
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals78%1.291.22
Half-time resultLevel at half-time44%2.28–
Half-time / full-timeHT Deportivo Maldonado / FT Deportivo Maldonado36%2.77–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19%10.87–

Recent results

Deportivo Maldonado – last 6

DWWLWD
3 Nov@ Albion FC0–0D
29 Oct@ Porongos4–0W
24 Octvs Danubio2–1W
20 Oct@ Club Nacional2–3L
15 Octvs Albion FC4–1W
10 Octvs Liverpool Montevideo1–1D
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Cerro – last 6

LLDWLD
31 Octvs Central Espanol1–2L
25 Oct@ Atletico Torque1–3L
16 Octvs Cerro Largo1–1D
10 Oct@ Defensor Sporting3–2W
4 Octvs Wanderers0–2L
27 Sep@ Juventud0–0D
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

24 Sep 2026Cerro v Deportivo Maldonado1–2
Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro head-to-head page →

Primera División Apertura table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Penarol351997+2465
2Deportivo Maldonado351898+2263
3Atletico Torque3519610+1863
4Club Nacional3519412+1161
5Racing Montevideo3516127+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo3516118+1659
7Wanderers3514912-251
8Albion FC3513814+347
9Juventud35101114-641
10Central Espanol3511816-1341
11Defensor Sporting3591214-839
12Cerro Largo3591016-837
13Boston River3510718-1337
14Cerro3510718-2437
15Progreso3510520-1835
16Danubio3561415-1632

More Primera División Apertura predictions

League hub
Central Espanol Boston River Tip: Under 3.5 goals 13.0031%X3.1022%22.1547% U3.576%@1.25

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?

90Predict goes with Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance, priced at 1.22.

Who will win Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?

Deportivo Maldonado win 59% of the time on our model, the draw 23%, Cerro 17%.

How many goals will there be in Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?

Around 2.4 goals on our projection – 42% for over 2.5 and 53% for both teams to score.

What is the predicted score for Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?

Our correct-score lean is Deportivo Maldonado 1–0 Cerro – the likeliest scoreline that agrees with our tip. Total goals projected: 2.4.

When is Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?

Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from 90Predict's team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.