Tondela vs Farense – match briefing & prediction
Match briefing
Segunda Liga action on Sunday 15 November sees Farense travel to face Tondela – the whistle goes at 12:00 WAT. The standings: Tondela sit 7th on 16 points after 10 matches (in the upper half), Farense 8th on 15 (in the upper half). A gap of just 1 point, so the result shifts the table for both.
Form guide
Tondela over their last 5: DWLDW Most recently they shared the points with Sporting CP B 1–1 on the road. On home soil in that run: 2 wins, 0 defeats in 3. Scoring 1.8, conceding 1.0 per match.
Farense over their last 5: LDLWW Most recently they were beaten by Benfica B 2–3 at home. 2.2 goals per outing tells you the attack is clicking.
Goal forecast
Our model projects Tondela 1.9 – 0.7 Farense in expected goals, roughly 2.6 combined. A middling goal outlook: 47% for over 2.5, 48% for both teams scoring. Recent games for both sides have tended to go over 2.5 too.
Betting angles
- Match result (1X2): Tondela 65%, draw 20%, Farense 14%.
- Safer cover: Tondela or draw – 86% at 1.23.
- Both teams to score: no – 52% at 1.84.
- Price worth noting: Tondela to win at 1.92 – we make it 65%, the odds imply 52%.
Verdict
The 90Predict call: Tondela or draw (86% chance, priced 1.23 – longer than our fair 1.17, which makes it a value play). Correct-score lean: Tondela 1–0 Farense. Bets settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. These are probabilities, not promises – 18+, stake only what you can afford.
