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UEFA Nations League Kick-off Hristo Botev Stadium

Bulgaria v Iceland prediction

BulgariaWLDLD
Fri 13 Nov 2026 xG0.58 – 1.70
IcelandDWWDL
Bulgaria12%@4.33Draw23%@3.60Iceland65%@1.80
By · Lead analystUpdated 11 Nov 2026, 22:17 WAT · Picks graded in public on the results page
88%chance
90Predict pick

Iceland or draw

Very strongFair 1.14Odds 1.20
Rating10/10
Value

Iceland to win @ 1.80our chance 65% vs 56% in the price · edge +16%

Picks by market

ResultIceland to win65% · @1.80
Double chanceIceland or draw88% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score51% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–117%

Bulgaria vs Iceland – match briefing & prediction

Match briefing

On the 90Predict board for Friday 13 November: Bulgaria host Iceland in the UEFA Nations League at Hristo Botev Stadium, kick-off 20:45 (WAT). Going in, Bulgaria are 3rd with 4 points and Iceland 1st with 8.

Form guide

Bulgaria over their last 5: WLDLD Most recently they got past Luxembourg 2–0 on the road. On home soil in that run: 0 wins, 2 defeats in 3. Just 0.8 goals per match – chances are not being taken.

Iceland over their last 5: DWWDL Most recently they shared the points with Estonia 0–0 on the road. Away from home in that run: 1 win, 2 defeats in 4. Scoring 1.2, conceding 0.8 per match. 3 clean sheets show a back line that is hard to break.

Past meetings

Last time out between these two (3 Oct 2026): Iceland 3–0 Bulgaria.

Goal forecast

Our model projects Bulgaria 0.6 – 1.7 Iceland in expected goals, roughly 2.3 combined. A middling goal outlook: 42% for over 2.5, 49% for both teams scoring.

Betting angles

  • Match result (1X2): Bulgaria 12%, draw 23%, Iceland 65%.
  • Safer cover: Iceland or draw – 88% at 1.20.
  • Both teams to score: no – 51% at 1.73.
  • Price worth noting: Iceland to win at 1.80 – we make it 65%, the odds imply 56%.

Verdict

Ade Ola's verdict: Iceland or draw (88% chance, priced 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.14, which makes it a value play). Correct-score lean: Bulgaria 0–1 Iceland. Bets settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. These are probabilities, not promises – 18+, stake only what you can afford.

Result chances

Bulgaria12%fair 8.33 · @4.33
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.60
Iceland65%fair 1.55 · @1.80
2.28Expected goals
0.58Bulgaria xG
1.70Iceland xG
49%Both score
42%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–117%
0–215%
0–010%
1–110%
1–29%
0–38%

From our goals model: Bulgaria 0.6 – 1.7 Iceland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultIceland to win65%1.551.80 ▲
Double chanceIceland or draw88%1.141.20 ▲
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score51%1.951.73
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals69%1.461.33
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals58%1.731.70
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals78%1.291.25
Half-time resultIceland ahead at half-time44%2.25–
Half-time / full-timeHT Iceland / FT Iceland40%2.47–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–117%5.74–

Recent results

Bulgaria – last 6

WLDLDL
6 Oct@ Luxembourg2–0W
3 Oct@ Iceland0–3L
29 Sepvs Estonia0–0D
26 Sepvs Luxembourg1–2L
5 Jun@ Moldova2–2D
1 Junvs Montenegro0–1L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Iceland – last 6

DWWDLL
6 Oct@ Estonia0–0D
3 Octvs Bulgaria3–0W
29 Sep@ Luxembourg3–0W
26 Sepvs Estonia1–1D
10 Jun@ Argentina0–3L
31 May@ Japan0–1L
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

3 Oct 2026Iceland v Bulgaria3–0
Bulgaria vs Iceland head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Iceland4220+68
2Estonia4130+16
3Bulgaria4112-24
4Luxembourg4103-53

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
Moldova Kazakhstan Tip: Over 1.5 goals 12.6037%X3.0023%22.8840% O1.568%@1.44
Serbia Germany Tip: Germany to win 18.0013%X6.0015%21.3072% 272%@1.30
Netherlands Greece Tip: Netherlands to win 11.5067%X4.5019%26.0014% 167%@1.50
Slovakia Faroe Islands Tip: Over 1.5 goals 11.3666%X4.5018%28.5016% O1.575%@1.25
Liechtenstein Azerbaijan Tip: Under 3.5 goals 114.008%X5.1520%21.2872% U3.582%@1.22
Luxembourg Estonia Tip: Under 2.5 goals 12.1537%X3.1022%23.5041% U2.566%@1.50
Andorra Gibraltar Tip: Under 2.5 goals 11.9061%X3.0824%25.2016% U2.574%@1.32
Slovenia Switzerland Tip: Under 3.5 goals 16.0016%X3.6022%21.6062% U3.575%@1.25

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bulgaria vs Iceland?

90Predict goes with Iceland or draw – a 88% chance, priced at 1.20.

Who will win Bulgaria vs Iceland?

Bulgaria win 12% of the time on our model, the draw 23%, Iceland 65%.

How many goals will there be in Bulgaria vs Iceland?

Around 2.3 goals on our projection – 42% for over 2.5 and 49% for both teams to score.

What is the predicted score for Bulgaria vs Iceland?

Our correct-score lean is Bulgaria 0–1 Iceland – the likeliest scoreline that agrees with our tip. Total goals projected: 2.3.

When is Bulgaria vs Iceland?

Bulgaria vs Iceland (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Hristo Botev Stadium.

Numbers from 90Predict's team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.