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Luxembourg v Estonia prediction

LuxembourgLLLWW
Fri 13 Nov 2026 xG0.92 – 0.99
EstoniaDWDDW
Luxembourg37%@2.15Draw22%@3.10Estonia41%@3.50
By · Lead analystUpdated 12 Nov 2026, 02:33 WAT · Picks graded in public on the results page
66%chance
90Predict pick

Under 2.5 goals

GoodFair 1.51Odds 1.50
Rating6/10
Value

Estonia to win @ 3.50our chance 41% vs 29% in the price · edge +43%

Picks by market

ResultEstonia to win41% · @3.50
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score52% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals83% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–27%

Luxembourg vs Estonia – match briefing & prediction

Match briefing

Luxembourg v Estonia is one of the UEFA Nations League fixtures we have priced for Friday 13 November (20:45 WAT, Stade de Luxembourg). Going in, Luxembourg are 4th with 3 points and Estonia 2nd with 6. A gap of just 3 points, so the result shifts the table for both.

Form guide

Luxembourg over their last 5: LLLWW Most recently they were beaten by Bulgaria 0–2 at home. On home soil in that run: 0 wins, 3 defeats in 3. Just 0.5 goals per match – chances are not being taken.

Estonia over their last 5: DWDDW Most recently they shared the points with Iceland 0–0 at home. Away from home in that run: 0 wins, 1 defeat in 3. Just 0.5 goals per match – chances are not being taken. 4 clean sheets show a back line that is hard to break.

On points per game, Estonia arrive in better shape – 1.5 against 1.0.

Past meetings

Last time out between these two (3 Oct 2026): Estonia 1–0 Luxembourg.

Goal forecast

Our model projects Luxembourg 0.9 – 1.0 Estonia in expected goals, roughly 1.9 combined. That points to a tight, low-scoring affair – under 2.5 rates 66%. Recent games for both sides have mostly stayed under 2.5.

Betting angles

  • Match result (1X2): Luxembourg 37%, draw 22%, Estonia 41%.
  • Both teams to score: yes – 52% at 2.10.
  • Price worth noting: Estonia to win at 3.50 – we make it 41%, the odds imply 29%.

Verdict

We are going with Under 2.5 goals (66% chance, priced 1.50). Correct-score lean: Luxembourg 0–0 Estonia. Bets settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. These are probabilities, not promises – 18+, stake only what you can afford.

Result chances

Luxembourg37%fair 2.69 · @2.15
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.10
Estonia41%fair 2.46 · @3.50
1.91Expected goals
0.92Luxembourg xG
0.99Estonia xG
52%Both score
34%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–015%
0–115%
1–014%
1–113%
0–27%
1–27%

From our goals model: Luxembourg 0.9 – 1.0 Estonia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultEstonia to win41%2.463.50 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win78%1.281.36 ▲
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score52%1.932.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals60%1.671.50
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals66%1.511.50
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals83%1.201.17
Half-time resultLevel at half-time51%1.96–
Half-time / full-timeHT Draw / FT Draw23%4.38–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–27%14.96–

Recent results

Luxembourg – last 6

LLLWWL
6 Octvs Bulgaria0–2L
3 Oct@ Estonia0–1L
29 Sepvs Iceland0–3L
26 Sep@ Bulgaria2–1W
6 Jun@ Albania1–0W
3 Junvs Italy0–1L
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Estonia – last 6

DWDDWL
6 Octvs Iceland0–0D
3 Octvs Luxembourg1–0W
29 Sep@ Bulgaria0–0D
26 Sep@ Iceland1–1D
6 Junvs Faroe Islands1–0W
30 Mar@ Rwanda0–2L
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

Head to head

3 Oct 2026Estonia v Luxembourg1–0
Luxembourg vs Estonia head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Iceland4220+68
2Estonia4130+16
3Bulgaria4112-24
4Luxembourg4103-53

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
Moldova Kazakhstan Tip: Over 1.5 goals 12.6037%X3.0023%22.8840% O1.568%@1.44
Serbia Germany Tip: Germany to win 18.0013%X6.0015%21.3072% 272%@1.30
Netherlands Greece Tip: Netherlands to win 11.5067%X4.5019%26.0014% 167%@1.50
Slovakia Faroe Islands Tip: Over 1.5 goals 11.3666%X4.5018%28.5016% O1.575%@1.25
Bulgaria Iceland Tip: Iceland or draw 14.3312%X3.6023%21.8065% X288%@1.20
Liechtenstein Azerbaijan Tip: Under 3.5 goals 114.008%X5.1520%21.2872% U3.582%@1.22
Andorra Gibraltar Tip: Under 2.5 goals 11.9061%X3.0824%25.2016% U2.574%@1.32
Slovenia Switzerland Tip: Under 3.5 goals 16.0016%X3.6022%21.6062% U3.575%@1.25

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Luxembourg vs Estonia?

90Predict goes with Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance, priced at 1.50.

Who will win Luxembourg vs Estonia?

Luxembourg win 37% of the time on our model, the draw 22%, Estonia 41%.

How many goals will there be in Luxembourg vs Estonia?

Around 1.9 goals on our projection – 34% for over 2.5 and 52% for both teams to score.

What is the predicted score for Luxembourg vs Estonia?

Our correct-score lean is Luxembourg 0–0 Estonia – the likeliest scoreline that agrees with our tip. Total goals projected: 1.9.

When is Luxembourg vs Estonia?

Luxembourg vs Estonia (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Friday 13 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade de Luxembourg.

Numbers from 90Predict's team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.