Value bets yesterday
Prices that look too long: our numbers give these outcomes a clearly better chance than the bookmaker does. Expect a lower hit rate and bigger odds – this is a long-run approach with small stakes.
SpainCopa Del Rey3›
Anaitasuna1
Alaves6
Amorebieta1
UD Logroñés0
Mijas Las Lagunas1
Real Jaén2
ColombiaPrimera A1›
Junior2
Cucuta0
JamaicaPremier League1›
Arnett Gardens1
Waterhouse0
Costa-RicaLiga De Ascenso1›
Aserri FC0
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC01
Chapulineros1
Cordobés1WorldFriendlies1›
Vietnam U233
Thailand U230
BrazilParaense U201›
Remo U200
Comercial PA U200
AlgeriaLigue 21›
WA Tlemcen0
RC Arba0WorldUEFA Europa Cup Women1›
Feyenoord W0
VfL Wolfsburg W3
RomaniaLiga II1›
Metalul Buzău2
CSA Steaua Bucureşti1EuropeUEFA Champions League Women3›
Häcken W0
Chelsea W0
Roma W2
Servette Chênois W1
Paris Saint Germain W1
Bayern Munich W2
EnglandEFL Trophy10›
Bristol Rovers2
Reading2
Grimsby0
Nottingham Forest U213
Burton Albion0
Notts County3
Barnet4
Leyton Orient2
Oxford United4
Cheltenham0
Crewe1
Wigan2
Northampton1
Gillingham2
Mansfield Town3
Chesterfield5
Bromley1
Milton Keynes Dons2
Colchester0
Ipswich Town U210EnglandNon League Premier Southern Central6›
Leamington2
Bromsgrove Sporting3
Bury Town1
Bishop's Stortford1
Anstey Nomads1
Kettering Town0
Worcester City2
Racing Club Warwick1
Rushall Olympic1
Halesowen Town1
Stourbridge1
Alvechurch2EnglandNon League Premier Southern South2›
Sholing1
Chippenham Town1
Uxbridge4
Hanwell Town2EnglandNon League Premier Isthmian1›
Chatham Town0
Leatherhead1EnglandNon League Premier Northern1›
Bury1
Cleethorpes Town0EnglandNational League North1›
Scarborough Athletic1
Marine3EnglandNational League South1›
Hemel Hempstead Town0
Torquay2
El-SalvadorPrimera Division1›
Cacahuatique1
Firpo1BrazilCopa Fares Lopes1›
Guarani De Juazeiro5
Quixada1Yesterday's value bets at a glance
39 value bets at an average price of 2.15, with an average edge of 14% over the bookmaker. The biggest: Feyenoord W vs VfL Wolfsburg W – Both teams to score at 2.60, where we rate the chance at 56% against the 38% the price implies.
At odds of 2.15 you need to win about 47% of bets just to break even. That is why value betting is judged over hundreds of bets, not one day.
Staking value bets
- Keep each stake small and the same – around 1–2% of your betting bank.
- Value bets work best as singles; stacking them in one slip multiplies the risk.
- Check the price before you bet: if it has dropped below our fair odds, the value has gone.
- Expect losing runs. A 35% hit rate means losing five in a row happens regularly.
What makes a value spot
Odds are chances in disguise: 2.50 means the bookmaker thinks roughly 40% (100 ÷ 2.50), with their margin on top. If our ratings put the same outcome at 46% or higher, the price is too generous – and backing generous prices consistently is how value betting pays over time.
Value bets are listed separately from our main predictions because they lose more often. The results record tracks both, so you can see how each performs.
Frequently asked questions
What makes a value bet?
Our chance must be at least 6% higher than the chance implied by the bookmaker's odds (chance × odds ≥ 1.06), at odds between 1.60 and 4.50.
Will value bets win more often?
No – they win less often than our main picks, because the prices are bigger. The aim is a profit over many bets, not a win every time. Stake small and stay consistent.
Why do draws appear here?
Draws are often under-priced by bookmakers in close games. When our numbers rate a draw clearly higher than its price, it shows up as value.