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UEFA Nations League Kick-off Arena Kombëtare

Albania v Finland prediction

AlbaniaWLWWL
Thu 12 Nov 2026 xG1.64 – 0.87
FinlandLWDWL
Albania57%@1.95Draw22%@3.30Finland21%@4.10
By · Lead analystUpdated 11 Nov 2026, 23:29 WAT · Picks graded in public on the results page
79%chance
90Predict pick

Albania or draw

Very strongFair 1.27Odds 1.22
Rating9/10
Value

Albania to win @ 1.95our chance 57% vs 51% in the price · edge +11%

Picks by market

ResultAlbania to win57% · @1.95
Double chanceAlbania or draw79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110%

Albania vs Finland – match briefing & prediction

Match briefing

Albania v Finland is one of the UEFA Nations League fixtures we have priced for Thursday 12 November (20:45 WAT, Arena Kombëtare). Going in, Albania are 1st with 9 points and Finland 3rd with 7. A gap of just 2 points, so the result shifts the table for both.

Form guide

Albania over their last 5: WLWWL Most recently they got past San Marino 2–1 at home. On home soil in that run: 2 wins, 2 defeats in 4. Scoring 1.3, conceding 0.8 per match.

Finland over their last 5: LWDWL Most recently they were beaten by Belarus 0–1 on the road. Away from home in that run: 1 win, 3 defeats in 4. Scoring 1.7, conceding 1.3 per match.

Past meetings

Last time out between these two (3 Oct 2026): Finland 2–1 Albania.

Goal forecast

Our model projects Albania 1.6 – 0.9 Finland in expected goals, roughly 2.5 combined. A middling goal outlook: 44% for over 2.5, 54% for both teams scoring.

Betting angles

  • Match result (1X2): Albania 57%, draw 22%, Finland 21%.
  • Safer cover: Albania or draw – 79% at 1.22.
  • Both teams to score: yes – 54% at 2.00.
  • Price worth noting: Albania to win at 1.95 – we make it 57%, the odds imply 51%.

Verdict

Ade Ola's verdict: Albania or draw (79% chance, priced 1.22). Correct-score lean: Albania 1–0 Finland. Bets settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. These are probabilities, not promises – 18+, stake only what you can afford.

Result chances

Albania57%fair 1.76 · @1.95
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.30
Finland21%fair 4.76 · @4.10
2.51Expected goals
1.64Albania xG
0.87Finland xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–013%
1–112%
2–011%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%

From our goals model: Albania 1.6 – 0.9 Finland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAlbania to win57%1.761.95 ▲
Double chanceAlbania or draw79%1.271.22
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score54%1.852.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals69%1.451.40
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals56%1.781.62
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals76%1.311.22
Half-time resultLevel at half-time43%2.33–
Half-time / full-timeHT Albania / FT Albania34%2.94–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110%10.51–

Recent results

Albania – last 6

WLWWLL
6 Octvs San Marino2–1W
3 Oct@ Finland1–2L
29 Sep@ San Marino3–0W
26 Sepvs Belarus2–0W
6 Junvs Luxembourg0–1L
3 Junvs Israel0–1L
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Finland – last 6

LWDWLL
6 Oct@ Belarus0–1L
3 Octvs Albania2–1W
29 Sepvs Belarus0–0D
26 Sep@ San Marino7–0W
5 Jun@ Hungary1–2L
31 May@ Germany0–4L
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

3 Oct 2026Finland v Albania2–1
Albania vs Finland head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Albania4301+59
2Belarus4211+37
3Finland4211+77
4San Marino4004-150

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
Türkiye Belgium Tip: Belgium to win 13.9021%X4.1018%21.8060% 260%@1.80
Armenia Cyprus Tip: Under 3.5 goals 12.3541%X3.2522%23.1037% U3.576%@1.28
Italy France Tip: France or draw 13.7513%X3.7024%21.9563% X287%@1.22
Czechia Spain Tip: Over 2.5 goals 113.009%X8.0019%21.1872% O2.566%@1.44
England Croatia Tip: Over 2.5 goals 11.2269%X7.0021%211.0010% O2.569%@1.44
San Marino Belarus Tip: Over 1.5 goals 113.008%X8.5015%21.1477% O1.579%@1.20
Montenegro Latvia Tip: Over 1.5 goals 11.2867%X5.5021%29.5012% O1.575%@1.22

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Albania vs Finland?

90Predict goes with Albania or draw – a 79% chance, priced at 1.22.

Who will win Albania vs Finland?

Albania win 57% of the time on our model, the draw 22%, Finland 21%.

How many goals will there be in Albania vs Finland?

Around 2.5 goals on our projection – 44% for over 2.5 and 54% for both teams to score.

What is the predicted score for Albania vs Finland?

Our correct-score lean is Albania 1–0 Finland – the likeliest scoreline that agrees with our tip. Total goals projected: 2.5.

When is Albania vs Finland?

Albania vs Finland (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 12 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Arena Kombëtare.

Numbers from 90Predict's team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.