Double Chance Tips

Double chance treble for Thursday 12 November: pick by pick

Lithuania vs Suriname (Friendlies, 18:00 WAT): Lithuania or draw at 1.50, a 70% chance. Two results covered – the one we leave out comes up just 30% of the time on our numbers. Our ratings put 1.2 expected goals on Lithuania and 1.2 from Suriname.

Italy vs France (UEFA Nations League, 20:45 WAT): France or draw at 1.20, a 89% chance. Two results covered – the one we leave out comes up just 11% of the time on our numbers. Our ratings put 0.8 expected goals on Italy and 2.1 from France.

Albania vs Finland (UEFA Nations League, 20:45 WAT): Albania or draw at 1.20, a 79% chance. Two results covered – the one we leave out comes up just 21% of the time on our numbers. Our ratings put 1.7 expected goals on Albania and 0.9 from Finland.

Combined, the 3 legs pay 2.16, and our chance of all of them landing is 49%. Put 1,000 on it and the return is 2,160. That beats our fair price of 2.04, so there is value in it too.

How the double chance treble works

The double chance treble covers a win or a draw for three teams – the lowest-risk slip we publish. A draw never hurts it; only a defeat does.

Each leg has a high chance and a short price, so the treble is steady rather than exciting. It suits a larger stake than the accumulators.

Playing it well

• Returns are small – resist adding a fourth leg just to lift the odds.
• X2 on a clearly stronger away team is often the best value leg.
• Check that no leg is priced below about 1.15 – the return becomes too thin.

90Predict slips only use senior matches from 11:00 WAT onwards. Once the first game kicks off the slip is locked, and it is graded on the score after 90 minutes. These are estimates, not promises – please only bet what you can afford to lose (18+).